If you are on Facebook you probably would have seen and likely tried those tests that pop up that supposedly tell you what job you are meant to have, what movie character you are like etc etc. If you are like me, you are probably dubious on the accuracy of these. I recently came across this research project from the UK where they created a risk calculator that is designed to predict an individual’s risk of dying in five years. You are probably thinking, how accurate is that going to be? Well if you look at what they did, the science behind it is actually quite good. The draw back to the study is that they looked at people aged 40-70, so the results are limited to this age range. However, it is worth a read. Continue reading to see what they found and follow the link so that you can try the test and see what your "five year risk" is.
The risk calculator is based on the findings from a project called UK Biobank. This was set up between 2006 and 2010. It collected 655 measurements from nearly 500,000 volunteers aged 40-70. These measurements included taking blood samples, physical and biological measurements as well as carrying out detailed questionnaires. Researchers Andrea Ganna and Erik Ingelsson used this resource to create UbbLE (UK Longevity Explorer). There were two parts to the research:
Association Explorer
This data firstly allowed them to investigate how closely each of the 655 measurements taken from the UK Biobank participants was associated with death within five years. The association is calculated using C-index. The higher the C-index, the more accurately the variable can predict death within five years. For example, the measure of ‘usual walking pace’ is a more accurate predictor of death within five years (C-index = 0.72) than the measure of ‘Number of days per week of moderate physical activity’ (C-index = 0.68). A C-index of 60-70% is considered a moderate predictor, 70-80% good, 80-90% very good and >90% is considered excellent.
They found some interesting results:
Risk Calculator
The researchers used a computer-based approach to automatically select the combination of questions from the UK Biobank that gave the most accurate prediction of death within five years (‘five-year risk’). This was found to be 13 questions for men and 11 for women.
When they tested their risk calculator the researchers found that it had a C-index of 0.80 for men and 0.79 for women. These scores are quite high which means it gives a reasonably good prediction of the chance of dying within five years.
The risk calculator will give you a percentage risk of death in the next five years. It then gives an estimate of an individual’s ‘Ubble age’. This age is based on UK life tables and selects the age at which the risk of dying is most similar. For example, if you are a woman of any age (between 40 and 70) and your individual risk of five-year mortality is 2.4% (calculated from questionnaire responses), the most similar risk in the UK life tables is the average risk for a 56-year old woman. Therefore, your Ubble age is 56 years.
If your Ubble age is higher than your actual age, you have a higher risk of dying within five years than the average person your age in the UK. Of course, if you Ubble is lower than your actual age, you have a lower risk than the average person your age in the UK.
Follow the link below to try the risk calculator and see what your Ubble age is.
What to make of this
It is important to remember that this is only an estimate. It does not predict the future for any one individual. It can’t tell you if you will live or die. My thought is that, if you are in the right age range and do the test and get a high Ubble age, maybe you need to look at making some changes in your life. The sooner you can make positive healthy changes the less likely the predication will come true. This test has some good science and reasoning behind so if you were only going to do one of these types of questionnaires, this would be the one to do. Doing the test may also give you the motivation you need to start to make better life choices. This is something your body will thank you for.
Click here to try the test.
References
- Association Explorer
- Risk calculator
Association Explorer
This data firstly allowed them to investigate how closely each of the 655 measurements taken from the UK Biobank participants was associated with death within five years. The association is calculated using C-index. The higher the C-index, the more accurately the variable can predict death within five years. For example, the measure of ‘usual walking pace’ is a more accurate predictor of death within five years (C-index = 0.72) than the measure of ‘Number of days per week of moderate physical activity’ (C-index = 0.68). A C-index of 60-70% is considered a moderate predictor, 70-80% good, 80-90% very good and >90% is considered excellent.
They found some interesting results:
- They found that the variables that most accurately predicted death from all causes within 5 years did not need to be measured by physical examination, but could be tested by questionnaire. For example walking pace is a stronger predictor than smoking habits. See a previous blog post of mine on walking pace and longevity.
- The best variables were different for men and women.
- In individuals who didn’t have any major diseases, measurements of smoking habits were the strongest predictors of death within 5 years.
Risk Calculator
The researchers used a computer-based approach to automatically select the combination of questions from the UK Biobank that gave the most accurate prediction of death within five years (‘five-year risk’). This was found to be 13 questions for men and 11 for women.
When they tested their risk calculator the researchers found that it had a C-index of 0.80 for men and 0.79 for women. These scores are quite high which means it gives a reasonably good prediction of the chance of dying within five years.
The risk calculator will give you a percentage risk of death in the next five years. It then gives an estimate of an individual’s ‘Ubble age’. This age is based on UK life tables and selects the age at which the risk of dying is most similar. For example, if you are a woman of any age (between 40 and 70) and your individual risk of five-year mortality is 2.4% (calculated from questionnaire responses), the most similar risk in the UK life tables is the average risk for a 56-year old woman. Therefore, your Ubble age is 56 years.
If your Ubble age is higher than your actual age, you have a higher risk of dying within five years than the average person your age in the UK. Of course, if you Ubble is lower than your actual age, you have a lower risk than the average person your age in the UK.
Follow the link below to try the risk calculator and see what your Ubble age is.
What to make of this
It is important to remember that this is only an estimate. It does not predict the future for any one individual. It can’t tell you if you will live or die. My thought is that, if you are in the right age range and do the test and get a high Ubble age, maybe you need to look at making some changes in your life. The sooner you can make positive healthy changes the less likely the predication will come true. This test has some good science and reasoning behind so if you were only going to do one of these types of questionnaires, this would be the one to do. Doing the test may also give you the motivation you need to start to make better life choices. This is something your body will thank you for.
Click here to try the test.
References
- http://www.ubble.co.uk/
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